Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS63 KMPX 200757
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening along a passing cold
  front. A few severe thunderstorms could produce large hail
  and gusty winds.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather through the
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. Next chance for showers and storms will be this afternoon
and evening, with pleasant conditions returning for the
weekend. Temperatures will hover right around the seasonal
average through the weekend, becoming slightly above average
early next week.

.THURSDAY...

The next upper level piece of energy embedded within the northwest
flow aloft will drop southeast out of the Canadian Prairies
this morning, before moving across ND/MN/WI. In response to this
increase in upper level energy, corresponding surface low will
develop. Winds will turn back to the SW this morning, increasing
low level moisture advection. With sufficient moisture and
forcing in place, isolated to scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms will develop across northern and central MN. Not
all locations will see rain, the focus for this morning`s
activity will be across northern portions of the CWA from
Alexandria to Mille Lacs. This morning`s scattered to broken
clouds will gradually clear out through the day, allowing for
instability to build. By this afternoon and evening, the focus
will be the associated cold front as it drops southeast across
MN. Scattered showers and storms will develop along this
boundary, within a modestly but sufficient environment. With
1000-1500 J/kg, 6.5C/km mid-level lapse rates, and 30-40 knots
of deep layer shear, an isolated strong to severe storm or two
will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight (2
out of 5) risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening,
with strong winds and hail being the primary hazards.

.THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Thereafter, surface high pressure will settle in out of Canada under
northwesterly flow aloft. This has quiet and pleasant weather
conditions written all over it. That`s what we can expect heading
into the Friday and Saturday timeframe. Afternoon dew points in the
middle to upper 50s and high temperatures around 80 degrees will
lead to a great start to the weekend. On Sunday, another piece of
energy will eject out of the Northern Rockies towards the Midwest.
Model guidance continues to show this system and the associated
moisture moving east-southeast across SD, IA, and southern MN on
Sunday. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible across southwestern and southern MN Sunday afternoon and
evening.

By early next week, global deterministic models and their associated
ensemble suites show a stronger and deeper upper level system diving
southeast out of Canada and towards the Great Lakes Region. With
there still being a degree of uncertainty within run-to-run model
guidance, the finer details will need to be ironed out in the coming
days. That said, low-end chances of showers and storms return to the
forecast during the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the overnight and morning
hours. The next upper level piece of energy will dive southeast
out of NE ND and into NW MN through the overnight and early
morning hours. This feature will promote ISO to SCT -SHRA across
northern MN. We will continue with PROB30 at KAXN for -SHRA by
11z and 13z for KSTC. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front will
drop south-southeast across MN. ISO TSRA will be possible along
the advancing front during the late afternoon and evening hours.
There still remains a degree of uncertainty within CAMs
regarding timing and placement. That said, kept precip and TS
mention out of TAFs. By 12z and 18z TAF issuance, we should have
a better grasp and better confidence regarding TS chances for
terminals.

KMSP...There still remains a degree of uncertainty with high res
guidance regarding tomorrow afternoons TS potential. At this
moment, probabilities and confidence remain low, so no mention
in this TAF issuance. That said, FROPA will still happen between
23z to 3z, which is when convection could occur. Given this
uncertainty, continued to maintain a dry TAF for MSP. By 12z
and 18z TAF issuance, we should have a better grasp and better
confidence regarding TS chances, timing, and placement.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...LPR