Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS63 KMPX 191119
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
619 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog this morning, with visibilities below 1/4 mile in
portions of western Minnesota.

- Rapid snowmelt expected today with high temperatures in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Our snowpack will likely be gone by the end of today
or tomorrow at the latest.

- Quiet weather expected throughout the next week, except for a
  chance for light isolated rain showers along a cold front
  Sunday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Fog this morning has yet to be as expansive or widespread as
forecast soundings were portraying over the previous few forecast
cycles, with some patchy dense fog appearing over sections of
western Minnesota as of around 3am. Nighttime microphysics RGB shows
this well, with a few upper level clouds possibly hindering further
expansion this morning. However, high resolution guidance has been
favoring expansion of the fog after around 10z (5am CDT) which makes
sense given temperatures sitting at their dew points with
essentially no wind to speak of. A few spots are technically seeing
`freezing fog` in that temperatures are below 32, however there
should be little impact beyond some frosty looking ice glazing
elevated metal surfaces. When we reach sunrise, assuming skies
remain relatively clear, any lingering freezing fog or fog should
burn off quickly given the ever strengthening sun angle as we are
only a couple days away from the Spring equinox at which point we
will start to gain daylight even more rapidly than before.
Temperatures today look to be in the upper 40s in eastern MN/western
WI increasing to some low 60s along the Buffalo Ridge in western MN
today with partly sunny skies and relatively light winds.

The pattern doesn`t change all that much over the next few days, and
with the significant snowmelt observed on Wednesday it seems likely
that the rest will be gone by the end of today (assuming we see
plenty of sun) or tomorrow at the latest. This also means the best
WAA in the lower levels within the forecast period on Saturday will
not have to deal with snow on the ground hindering temperatures,
thus forecast highs have trended higher across all but western
Minnesota where they were already in the 70s for Saturday. Our lone
chance for precipitation within the period will arrive via a
backdoor cold front moving across the area from north to south on
Sunday evening, however QPF will be light and any precipitation
looks to be isolated showers. Temperatures may cool just enough to
squeeze out some snowflakes, however the thermal profile generally
does not support accumulations with temperatures once again
returning above freezing on Monday, albeit colder than the weekend.

The strong and broad ridge situated over the southwestern US will
continue to dominate the weather pattern coming up resulting in
continued warm air and above normal temperatures throughout next
week. The ridge will also keep another strong cyclone akin to our
last snow event from approaching the region until it moves off,
which guidance does not hint at within the 7-10 day period coming
up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Areas of dense fog are being observed across the area this
morning with a mix of MVFR and intermittent IFR visibility at
times, primarily for AXN/RWF/MKT/STC with VFR intermittent MVFR
at MSP/RNH/EAU. The fog is not particularly expansive despite
temperatures having crashed to dew points overnight, such that
the mid-March sun should be enough to burn off any fog within
the first few hours of daylight. Afterwards, expect VFR across
all sites with a mid level VFR cloud deck moving in after 00z.

KMSP...Kept in some fog this morning but improved the lowest
overall visibility within the TEMPO mainly due to lack of
confidence in the IFR level visibility reaching the terminal for
too long. Another round of fog is possible after 08-10z, however
confidence was too low to include for now with a less favorable
environment than this morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE to SW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW to S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-
     Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH